Surge grid

Day-ahead load forecasts for every EIA-930 demand balancing authority — ranked by utilisation, filterable by interconnection and size. Click a card to open its map-and-chart detail.

Showing 41 of 53 balancing authorities

Douglas County PUD

Peak · next 24h

0.3GW

all-time 200 MW

Grant County PUD

Peak · next 24h

0.8GW

all-time 550 MW

Homestead

Peak · next 24h

0.1GW

all-time 100 MW

WAPA Rocky Mountain

Peak · next 24h

3.3GW

all-time 4 GW

BA of N. California

Peak · next 24h

3.1GW

all-time 3 GW

PNM (New Mexico)

Peak · next 24h

2.0GW

all-time 2 GW

Tampa Electric

Peak · next 24h

4.0GW

all-time 5 GW

Duke Energy Florida

Peak · next 24h

10GW

all-time 12 GW

Santee Cooper

Peak · next 24h

4.2GW

all-time 5 GW

Nevada Power

Peak · next 24h

6.2GW

all-time 8 GW

Avista

Peak · next 24h

1.4GW

all-time 2 GW

Gainesville Utilities

Peak · next 24h

0.3GW

all-time 450 MW

Bonneville Power

Peak · next 24h

9.0GW

all-time 12 GW

Portland General Electric

Peak · next 24h

3.0GW

all-time 4 GW

ERCOT

Peak · next 24h

63GW

all-time 86 GW

Duke Energy Progress East

Peak · next 24h

9.9GW

all-time 14 GW

Tallahassee

Peak · next 24h

0.5GW

all-time 650 MW

JEA (Jacksonville)

Peak · next 24h

2.3GW

all-time 3 GW

Tucson Electric Power

Peak · next 24h

2.1GW

all-time 3 GW

Duke Energy Carolinas

Peak · next 24h

16GW

all-time 23 GW

Dominion Energy SC

Peak · next 24h

3.8GW

all-time 6 GW

Turlock Irrigation District

Peak · next 24h

0.4GW

all-time 620 MW

NorthWestern Energy (MT)

Peak · next 24h

1.3GW

all-time 2 GW

Arizona Public Service

Peak · next 24h

5.8GW

all-time 9 GW

El Paso Electric

Peak · next 24h

1.5GW

all-time 2 GW

Tennessee Valley Authority

Peak · next 24h

22GW

all-time 34 GW

Southwest Power Pool

Peak · next 24h

33GW

all-time 56 GW

Seattle City Light

Peak · next 24h

1.1GW

all-time 2 GW

Salt River Project

Peak · next 24h

4.7GW

all-time 8 GW

Tacoma Power

Peak · next 24h

0.5GW

all-time 850 MW

Chelan County PUD

Peak · next 24h

0.2GW

all-time 350 MW

Xcel Colorado

Peak · next 24h

4.4GW

all-time 8 GW

PJM Interconnection

Peak · next 24h

88GW

all-time 166 GW

LG&E / Kentucky Utilities

Peak · next 24h

4.0GW

all-time 8 GW

WAPA Desert SW

Peak · next 24h

1.0GW

all-time 3 GW

Imperial Irrigation District

Peak · next 24h

0.4GW

all-time 1 GW

LA Dept of Water & Power

Peak · next 24h

1.7GW

all-time 7 GW

Duke Energy Progress West

Peak · next 24h

0.6GW

all-time 2 GW

Seminole Electric Coop

Peak · next 24h

0.4GW

all-time 3 GW

WAPA Upper Great Plains West

Peak · next 24h

0.1GW

all-time 700 MW

Southwestern Power Admin

Peak · next 24h

0.0GW

all-time 2 GW

What does this all mean?

Balancing authority (BA)

A company or agency that keeps a region's grid in balance — matching electricity generation to demand in real time. PJM runs the DC-to-Chicago corridor; CAISO runs California; ERCOT runs most of Texas. 53 BAs publish a live demand feed to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA-930) — surge forecasts all of them.

Interconnection

The three giant synchronised AC grids of North America — Eastern, Western, and Texas. They barely talk to each other (only a handful of DC ties). A blackout in one can't easily spread to the others.

Day-ahead forecast

How much electricity the model thinks will be consumed over the next 24 hours, made the day before. Grid operators use day-ahead forecasts to decide which power plants to start up, how much fuel to buy, and how to price wholesale electricity.

MW and GW (megawatts, gigawatts)

Units of instantaneous power demand. 1 GW = 1 000 MW ≈ 1 large nuclear reactor at full output, or roughly enough to power 750 000 typical US homes on a hot afternoon. PJM peaks at ~165 GW; a small utility like Homestead, FL peaks at ~100 MW.

Median · p10–p90 (the shaded band)

Surge returns a probability range, not a single number. The median is the middle guess. The p10–p90 band covers the middle 80% of likely outcomes — roughly: there's a 10% chance actual demand comes in below the band, 10% above it. A narrow band means the model is confident; a wide band means weather or weekday uncertainty matters.

% of all-time peak

How close tomorrow's forecasted maximum is to that BA's historical record. 100% = likely to tie or break the peak — that's when grid stress is real. <60% is a comfortable shoulder day.

RTO / ISO

Seven US regions run competitive wholesale electricity markets (PJM, CAISO, ERCOT, MISO, NYISO, ISO-NE, SPP). Generation and retail are separate companies bidding through an auction. Non-RTO BAs are vertically integrated — one utility owns everything from the power plant to your meter.

MASE (model accuracy score)

How well the model does compared to a naive "same as last week" baseline. Lower is better. 1.0 = no better than naive; 0.5 = half the error of naive; 0.0 = perfect. surge-fm-v3 scores 0.52 on the 7 biggest grids — about 10× better than a typical weather-adjusted regression.